Tips from an expert: How to make your NCAA Tourney picks

With everyone printing brackets, erasing picks, and talking college basketball, The Core Junction thought it’d be helpful to offer some tips:

Big man success: The tournament is well known as a time when guards step out their play. More recently though, big men have dominated and taken their teams on their backs. Think Sean May, Emeka Okafor, Greg Oden, Glen Davis, Al Horford, and Joakim Noah. This year’s crop? Michael Beasley of Kansas State, Kevin Love of UCLA, Roy Hibbert of Georgetown (a Final Four participant last year), Tyler Hansbrough of North Carolina, Luke Harangody of Notre Dame, Darrell Arthur of Kansas, and DeJuan Blair of Pittsburgh. Having strong front court play that can take over is something most Final Four teams have in common. A team cannot fake this for an entire tournament run. George Mason tried to and then ran into that great Florida front court. A team either has it or doesn’t, plain and simple. Don’t over-think this point but don’t under value it either.

Teams building new chemistry: This doesn’t just mean teams that have rattled off a nice streak going into the tournament. If that’s the case, go check out Davidson and their nice 22-game winning streak, which is currently the longest in the nation. I’m talking teams that have had key players finally return back from injuries or other problems late in the season. Look no further than Ty Lawson of North Carolina, Levance Fields of Pittsburgh, Scott Padgett of Louisville, and Jerome Dyson of Connecticut. Teams that are peaking come tournament time usually can carry that unique momentum to the Final Four. That momentum cannot be replicated. If a team’s best basketball is behind them, then a special run is unlikely.

Ability to win ugly: You can’t expect a team to come out and play four straight perfect games in the tournament. It rarely happens. Teams that have proven they can win in different situations and with different styles are the ones that show the real poise in March. Think Ohio State of last year, with two close weeks in a row against Xavier and Tennessee. Illinois three years back against Arizona. Oklahoma State against St. Jospeh’s the year before. This year’s participants? Two heavyweights in UCLA and North Carolina have both proven they can win tight games even when their stars are struggling. Two Big Ten teams in Michigan State and Wisconsin also share the same idea. The Spartans can win games even when they have a high turnover rate while the Badgers will depend on foul shots to squeak out close games in the tournament.

Location, location, LOCATION: The tournament is set up so that higher seeded teams have a strong chance to play in a neutral site that is actually close to their home court. When Syracuse won the title in 2003, they played the regional final in New York. Illinois played the regional final three years ago in Rosemont, Illinois. Last year, both Georgetown and UCLA enjoyed short trips to their regional finals. Two teams this year that envision playing regional final games in their home state are North Carolina, which would play in Charlotte, North Carolina, and Texas, which would play in Houston, Texas. UCLA will also be playing their first two games in Anaheim, California while Memphis will be playing in Little Rock, Arkansas, two hours away from their home.

Coaching excellence: March Madness is when coaches’ legacies are etched into history. Many unknown coaches have elevated their status within college basketball and their programs with a nice run in the tournament. Other coaches are already proven and continue their success every year tournament time. Thad Matta rose up at Xavier, then continued at Ohio State. Roy Williams almost got to the top with Kansas, finally doing so with North Carolina. Rick Pitino, the only coach to take three separate schools to the Final Four, lives for the madness. Who are some of the upcoming/unknown great coaches? Sean Miller of Xavier, Brad Stevens of Butler, Mike Brey of Notre Dame, Tony Bennet of Washington State, and Trent Johnson of Stanford.

And the most important tip….

No one is wrong until Thursday afternoon: No reason to bash other people’s picks because for all you know, they could have the perfect bracket. Your mom likes Belmont to upset Duke? Ok. Your boss is really favoring Gonzaga for the Final Four? Go with it. You sister thinks UNC will lose their first game? Well, that might be a stretch. That said though, some extremely strange things have happened once this time of the year rolls around. Sure things go down easily (Connecticut against George Mason two years ago?), unknowns rise up (Joakim Noah and the Florida Gators), brackets get destroyed in the first round, relationships end. That is the beauty of this tournament. Make your picks and be confident but don’t rip on your girlfriend’s picks. You might be eating your words come April and also looking for some new loving.

Here’s a printable bracket (CBS Sportsline)